The big tax plan unveiling ? The lack of market reaction is pretty revealing ......

Thursday 27th April 2017 The big tax plan unveiling ? The lack of market reaction is pretty revealing ...... ref :- "Trump's tax cut plan only pays for itself with growth in Fairyland" , CNBC No one could accuse President Trump or other members of his administration of overdoing the modesty when it comes to describing their plans. Of course you'd expect them to adopt a particularly upbeat, positive manner to sell a radical new agenda, and we are constantly hearing how their programmes will be "beautiful", "tremendous" or perhaps just plain "great". The adjective that has been chosen to apply most often to their tax-cutting plans has been "historic", so why hasn't there been more of a reactio

We just may be on the edge of nuclear conflict, but you'd never know it from the gold price ....

We just may be on the edge of nuclear conflict, but you'd never know it from the gold price ..... Ref :- Buttonwood "Not barking yet" , The Economist, Finance and Economics Excuse us for hopping back to last Friday's Economist, but we're partial to an occasional look into the gold market and hadn't so far had time to get back to this Buttonwood piece. One of the most interesting things about the gold market is how deeply it polarises opinion. We're convinced that above and beyond the cold fundamentals that dictate the price of gold, there are some traders naturally predisposed to examine the merits of the yellow metal as an investment, and some who most definitely are not. Presumably this la

Poll-Fatigue anyone ? Brace yourselves ...... here's another one. ref : General

Tuesday 18th April 2017 Poll-Fatigue anyone ? Brace yourselves ...... here's another one. ref : General It's not as though there's nothing else to think about on your return from your Easter break .... not least a bellicose war of words between the USA and North Korea. One might be forgiven for thinking that we are being taken as close to a nuclear conflagration as we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Let's hope that the USA's prime motivation behind their own sabre-rattling response to North Korea's apparent lust for confrontation is to "encourage" China to put the pressure on their rogue neighbour, as many of the sages suspect. From a market point of view, much of the safe-ha

In case we'd forgotten, Germany's got an election this year too .......

Wednesday 12th April 2017 In case we'd forgotten, Germany's got an election this year too ....... ref :- "Merkel's "Nein" to Pooled Euro Debt Emerges as Election Plank" , Bloomberg Markets Quite rightly, France's upcoming presidential race is getting all the attention just now as far as matters electoral are concerned. It's a very remote possibility that the French people might have to choose between a right-wing Nationalist (Le Pen) and a Communist-backed left-winger (Melenchon) come the second round of voting on May 7th, but the fact that it exists at all is an understandable cause of raised anxiety levels. In contrast, there's been considerably less anxiety surrounding the German election

A bit discredited they may be, but pre-election polls can still set off the jitters .....

A bit discredited they may be, but pre-election polls can still set off the jitters ..... ref :- "French Election Risk Reawakens as Bonds Drop, Volatility Jumps" , Bloomberg Markets You could be forgiven for assuming two things. Firstly, that for all the hullabaloo the French presidential election was beginning to look a bit predictable -- centre-left "En Marche" candidate Emmanuel Macron and the National Front's Marine Le Pen to pass through to the second round of voting , where the former will gain a substantial victory. And secondly, that after the shock political results of last year, confidence in polls was so undermined that their influence over pre-election markets would be commensu

If you run $105 billion, your views tend to get noticed ...... ref :- "Gundlach Says Bond Rall

If you run $105 billion, your views tend to get noticed ...... ref :- "Gundlach Says Bond Rally to Continue With 10-Year Yield Falling" , Bloomberg Markets Just because you're known as one of the bond gurus and control an awful lot of money, that doesn't always make you right. At the start of the year, there was a high-profile difference of opinion between the guru in question, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, and another of the species Bill Gross of Janus Capital. They disagreed on what yield level on the US 10yr Treasury would signal an end to the long-term bull-run in the bond market. They went for 3.00% and 2.60% respectively, and the only thing we could be sure of was that they c

Futures positions tell a story ..... every week, in fact

Futures positions tell a story ..... every week, in fact ref :- TRADING POST, Jamie Chisholm in The Financial Times, Markets and Investing Each week the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publish the net long or short positions held by players on the futures markets, who are obliged to disclose their positions in full. These reports are usually of more interest to market specialists than your average investor, except when they get to more extreme levels in one direction or the other. There are a number of methods of judging whether something is "overbought" or "oversold", but excessively long or short positions held by speculators would certainly start a few bells ringing, and that'

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