Juncker jilted as POTUS resumes the attack, and Argentina takes the lead in the race that nobody wan

ref :- The Bloomberg Open, Online (Europe Edition) The frontrunner in the race to be proclaimed the most toe-curling image of the year (decade ? century ?) was that of EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Trump kissing and holding hands at the conclusion of their White House summit in July. The meeting had been called to stave the imposition of trade tariffs on the EU by Mr Trump, and at the ensuing love-in before the world's media, it was deemed to be a great success. Mr Juncker has been accused of misjudging a mood more than once in his career, and for a number of reasons, but we have to believe that relief at the postponement of US action prompted him to put on a show for the camer

Brexit and Sterling ..... just quickly, some thoughts on the run ..... not always a wise idea !

ref :- General The battle-scarred British Pound finally got a much-needed fillip yesterday when the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier, not someone known for offering unwarranted encouragement, said that a specially bespoke deal for post-Brexit Britain was in the pipeline. The pound jumped about 1%, to above €1.11 and $1.30, and by and large has hung on to those gains despite M. Barnier reverting more to type by reiterating this morning that the EU should also prepare for a "No Deal" outcome. Regulars will know that we long ago took the decision not to comment constantly on the whole Brexit thing. Our idea of hell would have been to write about Brexit on a daily basis for a few years (as m

Italy's coalition is being remarkably candid about its views on Eurozone budget rules, but does

ref :- "Italy Bond Traders Aren't Sitting and Waiting for Next Storm" , Bloomberg Markets The Eurozone has a plenty of form when it comes to breaches of its own budgetary rules, and it's not just the so-called peripheral nations that step out of line. France and Germany were the first to step out of line with the Growth and Stability Pact that states that no country's budget deficit should exceed 3% of GDP. France, along with several others, still has issues on that subject, whilst Germany now faces very different criticism, namely that it ignores global (not just European) pleas to boost domestic demand and address its enormous current account surplus. Not rule-breaking as such, just an ex

The Fed's sticking to its guns ...... at least it was three weeks ago.

ref :- The Daily Shot Newsletter in the Wall Street Journal online, by Lev Borodovsky The obvious potential flaw with reading too much into the minutes of Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings is that since they're released some weeks after the event there's always a chance that they're slightly out of date. So has anything happened since Aug 1st that might make us doubt that the minutes released yesterday might not still accurately reflect the views of the FOMC 22 days later ? Well, the answer to that is Yes... and No. Yes, because as we know President Trump has been ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed by complaining about rate rises and the strong dollar that they promote ..... and

Not much data this week, but you can always rely on the President to stir things up a bit .....

​ ref :- All financial media outlets There are uncommonly few data releases this week important enough to materially affect the direction of markets. Tomorrow we've got the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting ..... certainly important, but unlikely to spring any surprises (famous last words). At the end of the week we've also got the annual central bankers get-together at Jackson Hole, with Fed Chairman Jay Powell speaking on monetary policy on Friday. Now that might just be revealing on a number of levels, and would be especially so if he felt moved to respond to criticism from Mr Trump. We're sure that it might be tempting for Mr Powell, but it's very unlikely that he would get

China's take on a lesson from history .....

ref :- "Chinese Media Warns of Japan's Plaza Accord Lessons" , Bloomberg Markets Remember the Plaza Accord ? We've had occasion to bring the subject up now and again and it remains a seminal moment in the history of foreign exchange markets. It also remains a font of very lively memories for anyone who happened to be trading currencies in 1985, but that's another story ..... A long-term result of President Reagan's fight against inflation, the rampant US Dollar (particularly against the Japanese Yen) was cutting US exporters off at the knees and leaving the US with a huge and very worrying current account deficit. When Washington had decided that enough was finally enough, the Finance Minist

Really ? US to intervene in FX markets ? Surely not ..... but then again, this IS Donald Trump we&#3

ref :- "FX Traders Are on Alert as US Dollar Intervention Risk Climbs" , Bloomberg Markets Like a lot of people, we often find ourselves saying that nothing would surprise us when it comes to the current US administration. It's not entirely true, though .... there are certain things that even in this crazy world we just would not have considered a realistic possibility, never mind a likely one. The prospect of the US authorities stepping into foreign exchange markets to sell the dollar and reduce the value of the US unit would be one of them. Our thanks therefore have to go to Bloomberg for bringing to our attention the fact that such heavyweights as JP Morgan Chase , Deutsche Bank and State

"Bloodbath ! " ..... "Contagion ! "..... It would be fair to say that so far Tur

ref :- All Financial Media, Everywhere. No apologies for returning to familiar ground ..... it's impossible to look beyond Turkey this morning. The world's attention is firmly on Ankara , and we may very well be at a seminal moment not just for financial markets but also for the strategically crucial geopolitics of the region. When people start saying that it feels rather like the start of the Asian Crisis of twenty years ago or so, as some commentators are this morning, it's probably worth keeping a pretty close eye on unfolding events. So what's going on ? Well, one year ago, the US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD / TRY) exchange rate was about 3.50 . One month ago it was 4.85, and one week ago

What's the big deal ? It's just another bond auction ....

ref :- "Bond market drama builds around auction that could bring highest yield in 7 years" , CNBC Markets Generally speaking, few things could be more routine than the regular auctions of bills, notes and bonds (IOUs, in other words) conducted by Treasury departments in the US and around the globe. Nothing is more normal than governments borrowing from the markets to finance their obligations, even if the amount of new paper issued varies widely with the condition of government finances. But investors should be keeping a close eye on how today's auction of $26 bln of benchmark 10yr US Treasury Notes fares. For one thing, the size of the issue is a record and is part of this week's funding pr

Politics and markets are always interlinked, right ? Here's a view that suggests that the bond m

ref :- "Bond investors must keep an eye on populist threat to low-inflation world" , Karen Ward of JP Morgan Asset Management, Markets Insight in the Financial Times When you've been away for a bit and only able to follow things from a distance, it's always of interest to have a good look around to see what's changed, and indeed what remains the same. For example, the Turkey situation has deteriorated hugely from what was already a pretty dismal outlook ten days ago. On top of a general loss of faith in the independence of the central bank, and in the prospect of anybody taking the necessarily tough monetary policy decisions in defiance of President Erdogan, we can now throw in a bitter dipl

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