Rule No, 1: DON'T GET INVOLVED IN POLITICS! (but spare a thought for those that have to… like He

ref: - "Fed Rejects Call to Consider Politics in Policy Decisions”, The Wall Street Journal First, our sympathies to HM The Queen… Her Majesty is already known to be distinctly unimpressed with the current standard of the UK's politicians and her opinion is not likely to be improved by the news that PM Boris Johnson will ask her to suspend parliament soon after it returns in early September until the Queen's Speech (purely a recital of government policy for the forthcoming session in which she has no input) on October 14th. Since the politicos take a three-week break for the political conference season anyway, the effective length of the "prorogation" of parliament amounts to just one extra

Look out for pointers from the Fed, more yields from a parallel universe, and suggestions of a count

ref :- "Germany to test investor interest with 30-year paper carrying zero coupon" , The Financial Times, Markets and Investing Just time to alert you to two events today, one of which will probably have taken place by the time you read this (but no matter) . This evening the minutes of the US Fed's July monetary policy meeting are released, and as ever the markets will be assessing them for a better insight into how members of the Open Market Committee really feel about the future course of policy. On this occasion however, the release will be followed on Friday by Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, which should offer a more up-to-date reflection of the current thinking. Neverth

Monday morning stuff... oh, and Direct intervention? Things have changed, and not even you could mak

ref: - "A currency war Trump was never going to win”, Opinion by Megan Greene of Harvard Kennedy School, The Financial Times 16/8/19 A bit of a breather this morning… just a touch of "risk-off" mode in evidence with stocks and bond yields managing a bit of a rally. Mind you, if you'd only been reading the weekend press you might have been forgiven for approaching the new week in a darker frame of mind. Naturally, much of it revolved around last week's inversion of the most closely watched part of the yield curve, when the yield on 2yr US Treasuries briefly went above that of the 10yr equivalents. As we are always hearing (please… make it stop!), yield curve inversions in general and of the 2

It may make sense, but isn't it as much "Punting" as "Investing”?

ref: - "Investors go through looking glass world of negative yields”, Markets and Investing, The Financial Times ref: - "Bond buyers play long game to notch up huge gains with bet on lower rates”, Companies and Markets, The Financial Times 12/8/19 If you wanted to get a handle on just how spectacularly the market's anxieties about future growth have sent global yields tumbling, you could do worse than look at the performance of Austria's "century" bond, issued in 2017 with a coupon (annual interest rate) of 2.1%. You wouldn't be the only one, it's become a bit of a financial media darling over the last week or so. You may or may not remember that at the time of issue, many were making the po

China and dumping US Treasuries .... You know they said it would never happen ? Well , "Never s

ref :- "The threat of a US - China currency war ", Opinion by John Plender, The Financial Times ref :- "China's Treasuries Hoard Seen as Next Line in the Sand After Yuan's Drop" , Bloomberg Markets 5/8/19 and updates After Monday's market-mauling brought on by USD / CNY busting up through CNY 7.00, yesterday was a day for a breather. Encouraged by the People's Bank of China posting the official fix for USD / CNY at a stronger-than-expected rate (from which it is allowed daily moves of up to 2%), stocks were able to recover a little after six down days on the spin . Even the safe-haven seeking that has seen global bonds yields tumble (and prices soar) abated for a while. Frankly, though, this

Time to grab the tin helmets ..... This is what "escalation" looks like ....

ref :- "These Charts Show Global Markets Roiles as Yuan Breaches 7 Level" , Bloomberg Markets Whoops .... the problem with President Trump's manner of doing things from a market trading point of view is that very often the actions taken are directly contradictory to those that the White House rhetoric might suggest were more likely. Of course, part of that is intentional in that actions are all the more effective for being unexpected, and besides the administration would argue that they have to react to situations as they develop. So it was last week, when the rhetoric leading up to the trade talks with China was largely positive only for Mr Trump to surprise (stun ?) the market on Thursday

This was expected, right ? So why the big reaction ?

ref :- General reaction to the Fed move On the move today so just quickly ..... Assuming you can allow yourself some decent shut-eye overnight rather than having at least one orb glued to markets ( Come on! Get a life!), the first look at prices in the morning to check out the big movers is always of interest. Recently, the big story has consistently been the British Pound, as the UK currency heads further down the plughole in response to the increasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. We were amused to read Roula Khalaf in the FT this morning comparing Boris Johnson to Dr Pangloss, Voltaire's super-optimistic theological tutor to Candide in the novel of the same title who believed that ever

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