It's all totally horrifying ..... but no big deal apparently, ref:- "Tail Risk" by To

Rest easy .... we're not getting too UK-centric, it just looks that way at first. The truth is that Brexit chaos and the imminent general election that it has spawned make the UK the provider of many of the finest (which is to say, the most extreme) examples of modern day market peculiarities. Yesterday saw the release of the Labour Party's election manifesto. Of course, everybody knows (one assumes) that this particular Labour Party leadership is of the "hard-left" variety ..... old-fashioned socialists for the most part, and arguably something stronger in places. So no one should have been surprised by the adoption of a radical agenda, but in the event the extent of the lurch further leftw

Make a plan for every outcome, including… God forbid… more of the same.

ref: - "HSBC Says British Pound May Soar. Or Crash”, Bloomberg Markets 19/11/19 Regulars will know that as a rule we've tried to avoid the subject of Brexit like the plague, as much as anything else on the grounds that whatever one's point of view on the matter it's just too sad to watch a nation and a parliamentary system tearing itself apart. Of course, we've also steered clear of it all because it seemed pretty obvious from the start that nothing would be decided until the very last moment and therefore suggesting the likely outcome, both for the markets and for the political arena, would be a mug's game. On top of which, and this is very unprofessional, it quickly became excruciatingly d

Price is just a function of supply and demand, right? Well, yes… and no

ref: - "Tail Risk" by Tommy Stubbington, The Financial Times, Companies and Markets 13/11/19 Apologies for pointing you to a piece that appeared yesterday… we weren't able to get to it then but it's worth a look as it not only ties in pretty neatly with what we were talking about on Monday but also addresses what is perceived as the most basic truism of any market-place. That is to say that ultimately, the interaction between supply and demand determines the price. On Monday we were ruminating about the sharp pick-up in stocks and bond yields (and drop in bond prices), and how such moves had dragged the yield curve back into positive territory. That's a much more welcome picture for the econ

If you're the "glass half-empty" type, then you're plainly out of sync ......

ref :- "Rising Yields Quiet Bond Market's Key Recession Alarm" , The Wall Street Journal There is, or at least there used to be, a certain image of the gnarled old trader ..... one who's seen it all before and for whom sensible caution has given way to cynicism. Actually, you may have noticed that we are not averse to a dash of cynicism ourselves occasionally but the fact is that too much of it can lead to constantly missing opportunities that others have been only too pleased to take advantage of. Mind you, that doesn't mean that we're not still surprised by the enthusiasm of investors from time to time .... like last week, for example. Largely on the back of friendlier noises emanating fro

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