YUAN strong, YEN weak… and all's right with the world (apparently)

ref: - "Tail Risk" by Leo Lewis, The Financial Times, Companies and Markets Without question, some people spend so much time looking for danger that they miss out on market moves driven by a more optimistic outlook. We wouldn't want to give them a hard time, and not only because we regularly fall into that bracket ourselves. Even if it's a result of a slightly cynical view of the world born of hard experience, a healthy dose of caution is a vital part of a trader's armoury. Sometimes that caution will prove highly beneficial to the bottom line, and sometimes it won't… like the first two weeks of 2020. Back in early September, the Chinese Yuan (or renminbi) was trading just below CNY 7.20 to

Inflation ? What's that ? Yes, it's a New Year and time for the usual inflation warnings ...

ref :- "Feeling TIPSY" , Buttonwood in the Economist, Finance and Economics We're a bit slow getting round to this piece from the Economist ..... we were going to have a look at this last Friday but inconveniently President Trump decided to sanction the drone attack against Iranian general and political heavyweight Qassem Suleimani. In doing so of course he may have set off a chain of events that some might say the markets have not yet fully taken into account. Gold has got excited, oil too to a degree, but a less than 1% fall in stocks and a 12 basis point drop in the yield of 10yr US Treasuries -- the archetypal safe-haven -- is hardly evidence of panic. Mind you, we have to confess th

A New Year .... and a New Crisis

ref :- "Ten Strategists on What U.S. - Iran Escalation Means for Markets" , Bloomberg Markets If ever anyone was in any doubt about just how fundamentally global geopolitics can shape market movements, this morning has seen the sharpest of reminders. In a move rubber-stamped by President Trump, the hard-line (and much feared) Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was targeted and killed by a US drone in Baghdad. Whatever one's position, this is a distinctly worrying development and a very unwelcome way to start the year. We cannot know at this early stage where this will lead, but Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's promise of "severe retaliation" suggests that this may not be one of those incidents that bl

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